What if Baltimore spent the national average on the police and reallocated the extra spending towards a universal child benefit?
In 2023, Baltimore City will spend more than $1,000 per resident on policing. That is more than any major city in the country. According to the Vera Institute the national average is about $350 per resident, meaning Baltimore spends an additional $650 per person on policing.
Despite these large investments, there is no evidence that the police are reducing crime. Baltimore’s crime rates have mostly followed national trends and the city’s homicide rates remain among the highest in the country. It may come as no surprise then that Baltimore City residents do not trust the police. In a 2020 survey, just 12 percent of respondents said that they were satisfied with the police. 45 percent of respondents claimed that they felt nervous when they saw a police officer.
If you start asking questions about why Baltimore spends so much money on the police, the people in power will pretend they have no choice in the matter. They claim the consent decree legally obligates Baltimore to boost the police budget by millions each year because Baltimore has been under a court enforceable consent decree since 2017. The consent decree stems from an investigation launched by the Department of Justice in 2015 after the death of Freddie Gray. The DOJ found a pattern of misconduct, abuse, and racism. The 164 page report that summarized the investigation is riddled with stories and statistics of malpractice committed by the police. Black residents were 3 times more likely to be stopped by police than White residents. 44 percent of all stops were in just two majority Black neighborhoods containing just 12 percent of the city population. Seven Black men were stopped more than 30 times during this four year period. And of course, there is the story of the corrupt Gun Trace Task Force that was revealed after the investigation.
To be clear, our local leaders are claiming that because our police have a record of malpractice and racism, we must give them more money. Something is clearly broken. But in this blog post I’m not going to dive into the politics of reducing the police budget. I am simply going to explore the question: What if Baltimore spent the national average on the police and reallocated the extra spending towards a universal child benefit?
How much money could we give parents?
If Baltimore spent the national average of $350 per resident on policing it would save $650 per person. The Baltimore population is about 576,000, meaning the spending cut would result in $375 million in freed up funds. There are roughly 118,000 children in Baltimore so that means that the universal child benefit could be $3,180 per child annually. A universal child benefit would simply send parents a flat amount per month, in this case $265 per child. So a mother of three would receive $795 per month or $9,540 per year.
It’s important to remember that this is not Baltimore defunding the entire police department, it is simply us spending the national average on police.
Outcomes
Using data from the American Community Survey I simulated the impact of sending parents $3,180 per child annually in Baltimore. I found that these monthly payments would decrease child poverty by 35 percent, lifting nearly 14,000 children out of poverty. The reform would also reduce deep child poverty, a measure that is half of a person’s poverty threshold, by 48 percent. Of the 14,000 children lifted out of poverty, nearly 90 percent of them would be Black. Currently, Black children in Baltimore are 3.6 times more likely to live in poverty than White children.
Because child benefits also help family members, 10,000 adults would be lifted out of poverty as well. In total, the overall poverty rate would drop by 16 percent.
Impact
Research has shown that reducing child poverty increases educational outcomes, reduces healthcare costs, decreases mental health problems, boosts the overall economy, and yes, reduces crime rates. A 2020 study found that every $1,000 we spend on cash transfers to parents produces $5,603 in societal benefits. That is a very lucrative return on investment. In fact, the societal benefits of reducing child poverty are so large that even folks that never have children are net winners due to the economic boost and reduction in the probability that they are a victim of a crime.
These reforms could also address another major issue in Baltimore: population decline. A universal child benefit would not only encourage more families to move into the city, it would make parenting more economically viable for current residents. As the population grew, Baltimore business and the local economy would thrive.
Baltimore is not destined to lean into reactionary over-policing policies. We can do better by investing in our kids and communities. I know that anti-police and anti-poverty activists can come together and create a better Baltimore. Let’s do it.
