Could AGI render capitalism obsolete?
Note: While the ideas in this blog post are my own, the majority of the words were written with assistance of Assistant, an AI trained by OpenAI. You can interact with the Assistant here.
Artificial intelligence, or AI, refers to the ability of a computer or machine to mimic intelligent human behavior, such as learning, problem solving, and decision making. In many areas, AI systems are already superior to humans. For example, AI systems are able to process and analyze vast amounts of data much faster and more accurately than humans. AI systems have also been able to beat human players in complex games such as chess and Go, and are able to recognize objects and images with greater accuracy than humans. While current AI systems are limited in their abilities, it is only a matter of time until we develop true artificial general intelligence (AGI), which would be able to learn and perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
Once humans are able to build an AGI that is slightly smarter than us, it seems reasonable that this AGI could build an AGI smarter than itself. Then that AGI could build an AGI smarter than itself. And so on and so on and so on until we have a nearly infinitely intelligent AGI in just moments. While I will not discuss the potential dangers of AGI in this blog post, you can read about that here.
Instead, this blog post will focus on how AGI could potentially render capitalism, and free markets obsolete and shift our political economy towards a centrally planned system.
The benefits of capitalism
Capitalism’s ability to efficiently allocate resources and promote innovation are its two biggest strengths. The market uses price signals and feedback loops to determine the supply of goods and services, and allocates them to those who are willing to pay the most. Because goods and services go to the highest bidders, people have an incentive to accumulate wealth in order to afford to buy the things they want. This incentive to get rich, in turn, incentivizes people to create goods and services that people want and thus breeds innovation and spurs economic growth.
The next three sections examine how central planning using an AGI, could be superior to capitalism even at its strengths.
Resource supply with AGI
While market indicators provide a rough estimate of the overall goods and services that should be produced, they often fail to accurately predict demand. This can lead to shortages and surpluses, which can be inefficient and costly. A super intelligent AGI, however, could more accurately predict the real-time demand for goods and services, leading to more efficient production. Additionally, as the AI has access to increasingly large and detailed data sets, such as those provided by the internet, it can make more accurate predictions about future demand. This could lead to even more efficient production and distribution of goods and services.
Resource demand with AGI
Under capitalism, goods and services are awarded to individuals who are willing to pay the highest price, rather than to those who would gain the most utility or happiness from them. For example, I really want to own a lake house and believe that it would bring me a great deal of joy. However, because there are many wealthier individuals who are willing to pay more for a lake house, I am not able to afford one. Yet, it is likely that some of the individuals who are able to buy a lake house do not gain as much happiness from it as I would. More broadly, as long as inequality exists, markets are unable to maximize utility and ensure that goods and services are distributed in a way that would bring the most happiness to the greatest number of people.
Of course, we could mitigate these failures of capitalism with policies such as a universal basic income and universal healthcare. However, because capitalism relies on inequality to drive innovation, we cannot entirely equalize incomes.
While AGI cannot solve this problem completely, it may be possible for an economy planned by AGI to find alternative ways to drive innovation without relying on inequality. However, it is also possible that some degree of inequality may still be necessary as a motivator for other mechanisms.
Innovation with AGI
If a super intelligent AGI were to exist, it is likely that humans would no longer be able to create relevant innovations on our own. This is because the AGI would be far more capable of generating ideas and solutions than any individual human could be. In such a scenario, competitive markets would no longer be necessary, as the AGI would be able to provide all of the innovations that are needed. As a result, the use of a super intelligent AGI in the economy could potentially lead to significant increases in productivity and economic growth.
Are we okay with an AGI overlord?
There are certainly valid concerns about the potential impact of a centrally planned AGI on the human experience. While such an AGI may be able to create a more efficient and equitable economy, it is unclear whether or not this would necessarily lead to a better world for humans. It is possible that humans may not enjoy being under the control of a super intelligent computer, and we may be saddened by the fact that our own innovations and ideas are meaningless in the face of such advanced technology.
Additionally, there are existential risks associated with the development and deployment of a centrally planned AGI, such as the potential for the AGI to prioritize its own goals over the well-being of humans, or to behave in ways that are difficult to control or predict. These huge potential risks should certainly factor into the expected value of turning over our economy to an AGI.
Conclusion
It is quite possible that we will develop super intelligent AGI in our lifetime. The aggregated community prediction on Metaculus is that we will have AGI by 2038. This definition of AGI even includes general robotic capabilities, meaning it could also replace much of human physical labor as well. The time is now to consider how we will handle such radical shifts in our economy.
